Cambodia and Thailand agreed to an “immediate and unconditional” ceasefire after five days of deadly clashes. The truce, brokered by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim with support from the United States and China, was hailed as a breakthrough. The U.S. President Donald Trump even claimed on X that it was his proud achievement "President of Peace".
Yet, doubts persist about Thailand’s sincerity. The border zones remain under martial law, granting local military commanders wide autonomy. If violence resumes, Thailand could conveniently argue that its military, not the civilian government, was responsible. The absence of Acting Prime Minister from the official ceasefire announcement with press in Bangkok and delayed his statement until the following morning, deepens concerns about who truly holds authority in Thailand. It is worth noting, Thailand has done breaching ceasefire several times.
Why would Thailand risk resuming fighting? Its motives range from territorial ambitions over disputed borderlands to internal power struggles between the military and governement. Ceasefires are often used as tactical pauses to regroup. Thailand may also calculate that international backlash will remain weak, especially if it blames rogue military actions.
However, a breach would invite consequences. Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, would likely convene emergency talks to hold Thailand accountable. The U.S., embarrassed by Trump’s failed “peace deal,” could apply political and military pressure. Meanwhile, China might pivot closer to Cambodia, using economic leverage to push Thailand toward compliance.
Author: Huy PanhaCHEZDA